ICIMOD Warns of Flood, Landslide Risks Despite Weak Monsoon Forecast
Kathmandu, June 11: The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has projected below-normal monsoon rainfall across parts of the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, including Nepal, while warning that the risk of floods, landslides and other climate-related hazards remains high.
According to the HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026, Nepal, Bhutan, India and Pakistan are likely to experience lower-than-normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season. However, temperatures across much of the region are expected to remain above normal.
ICIMOD cautioned that reduced rainfall does not necessarily mean lower disaster risk. Scientists warned that short periods of intense rainfall, combined with rising temperatures and growing water stress, could trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountain areas.
“Even in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern,” ICIMOD said in a statement, urging communities and authorities to closely monitor weather forecasts and advisories.
The report noted that prolonged dry spells followed by heavy downpours could increase the risk of both droughts and floods during the same season. Warmer temperatures are also expected to intensify heat stress and reduce water availability.
According to the outlook, lower snow persistence in the mountains could weaken the region’s natural water reserves, making river systems and groundwater recharge more vulnerable to rainfall fluctuations.
ICIMOD stressed the need for stronger coordination among governments, technical agencies and local authorities to improve preparedness and response measures.
The report also highlighted increasing pressure on food production, water resources and energy systems, while calling for stronger early warning systems and impact-based weather forecasting.
The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026 is based on forecasts from multiple global and regional climate models and is intended to support governments, disaster management agencies and communities in planning for the monsoon season.
